A dark prediction emerges about Rio and 2016 Olympics
Murphy's Law
Adam Murphy
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Brazil basically announced to the world that it considers itself a country on the rise.
The International Olympic Committee apparently agrees with Brazil's self assessment.
By winning the bid, Rio de Janeiro will enjoy the economic benefits of hosting the event.
Maybe even more important is what the winning bid symbolizes.
Other countries now have to stand up and take more notice. Little Brazil is finally growing up. The most populous Latin America country will get a little respect.
But is this respect deserved?
Brazil's gross domestic product per capita has grown almost every year for the last 20 years. The economic center of Latin America is Brazil.
All is not sunshine in Brazil.
Violent crime rates have risen right alongside economic gains.
Between 1980 and 2002, the homicide rate in Brazil more than doubled, according to the Center for Disease Control Web site.
Giant slums known as favelas litter the Brazilian countryside. Crime and drug use are rampant in favelas, which are usually controlled by a drug lord and his gang.
The local police and federal police pretty much stay out of them. The local gangs are the power in the favelas.
Brazil seems to become more violent the richer it gets.
The Olympics will pump a lot of money into the Brazilian economy - money that may find its way into the hands of drug dealers. More money in drug dealers' hands is never a good thing.
An already uncontrollable problem, drug gangs will just be exasperated by more cash flow. Violence between gangs might escalate, leading to an arms race and even more violent crime.
The homicide rate has declined in the past few years, but that is by no means an indication of stability.
Is the decreased violence a blip on the radar, or is violent crime really on the downside?
If crime continues to fall and can come under control by the time the 2016 Olympics roll around, then the results can only be positive.If crime stays at its current level or increases, then Brazil might start to teeter on the brink of collapse, like Mexico.
Brazil's future depends on how it will quell the violence.
I can't be too optimistic that Brazil will be able to control the gangs in the country.
Law enforcement in Brazil is self-defeating.
According to an article in The New Yorker, local police work sporadically and are paid low wages. Because of this, the police officers join gangs as hired guns when they aren't working.
Seventy percent of police officers are killed off the job, presumably working in the drug gangs.
This is a telling statistic that shows that police officers aren't in all-out war with the drug gangs - they are part of the drug gangs.
Will Brazil be ready for the limelight by 2016?
I certainly hope so, but I have a hard time realistically believing the country can turn its crime rate around by then.






Viewing Comments 1 - 2 of 2
Greg
posted 10/06/09 @ 9:36 AM PST
Well...Brazil seems like a step up to me when we just had an Olympics in China where they regularly execute political dissidents, support child labor, and segregate and kill minority Uighurs, which are just a few of the many civil rights violations China is responsible for. (Continued…)
Stasiu Nabozny
posted 10/06/09 @ 3:23 PM PST
Exasperate: 1 a : to excite the anger of : enrage b : to cause irritation or annoyance to
Exacerbate: to make more violent, bitter, or severe
Even if you had used the right word, it's poor syntax. (Continued…)
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